Visual 09: Megacities in 2050

Today, more than half of the world’s people live in urban environments. In 2050, another 2.5 billion people will be added to the planet’s urban areas, with the majority of growth taking place in Asian and African countries. Using data from the UN and the Global Cities Institute, the visualization above highlights the world’s top megacities in 2050. According to the UN, a megacity is a city that has over 10 million residents.

Currently, Tokyo is the world’s most populated city with over 36 million residents. However, the city’s population started to decline in 2020. The same goes for São Paulo, Brazil (which currently has about 24 million inhabitants). By 2030, the world will have at least 43 megacities, the majority of which will be located in developing regions.

CITY	Population in 2050 (millions)
1. Mumbai, India	42.4
2. Delhi, India	36.2
3. Dhaka, Bangladesh	35.2
4. Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo	35
5. Kolkata, India	33
6. Lagos, Nigeria	32.6
7. Tokyo, Japan	32.6
8. Karachi, Pakistan	31.7
9. New York City, United States	24.8
10. Mexico City, Mexico	24.3
11. Cairo, Egypt	24
12. Manila, Philippines	23.5
13. Sao Paulo, Brazil	22.8
14. Shanghai, China	21.3
15. Lahore, Pakistan	17.4
16. Kabul, Afghanistan	17
17. Los Angeles, United States	16.4
18. Chennai, India	16.2
19. Khartoum, Sudan	15.9
20. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania	15.9

Data Source: Global Cities Institute

Europe, South America, and the Middle East are not included in the data visual because in 2050, the ten most populated cities in the world will not be from those regions. Though Kabul, Afghanistan comes close (at number 16) with a projected population of 17.09 million residents. Buenos Aires, Argentina landed outside the top 20 megacities in the data set, with a projected population of 15.5 million inhabitants. What exactly does all of this mean? Does it really matter if Europe and parts of North America no longer contain the majority of urban populations?

The table above not only lists the top 20 future megacities, but reveals the changing dynamics of global diplomatic power. Between now and 2050, just three countries will account for 35% of the world’s city dwellers: India, Nigeria, and China. Low birth rates and population stagnation is already taking shape in places like Poland, South Korea, and Sweden. In the United States, the national birth rate has hit a historic low. According to a provisional report released by the National Center for Health Statistics (at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), the number of births (starting in 2018) decreased by 2% from the previous year. In France and Japan, governments are pushing pro-family policies to propel birth rates.

If megacities in developed countries are headed towards a future with declining populations while developing nations are facing rapid urbanization and population growth; immigration, automated jobs, and global warming will become even bigger political issues.

In the coming decades, urbanized population growth and forced migration patterns will impact multiple borders. No megacity can survive without a strong tax base and conversely, no population within a megacity can thrive without stable governance and sustainable development.